We’re in the midst of a space revolution. 👾 Satellite constellations orbiting low Earth orbit (LEO), some circling Earth up to 16 times a day, provide a crucial role in our modern, daily life. 

We depend on them to communicate efficiently, connecting through the internet, wifi and on mobile phones, locally and  in remote locations. They provide us with precise GPS locations that help with everything from deliveries, through to emergency services (and warfare including anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities). They track changes in our ecosystems, air quality, and agricultural productivity. They monitor our weather to help with accurate forecasts. And they can predict natural disasters and climate change. 

New York Times bestselling author of When Heavens Went on Sale — best known as author of Elon Musk: Tesla, Spacex, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future — and narrator of Wild Wild Space documentary, Ashlee Vance, offers a perhaps chilling appraisal of the Wild West ‘celestial land grab’ and ‘quest for power’ happening overhead, saying: 

‘The fabric of our civilisation runs on satellites. There is a lot of money to be made up there... and whoever controls space, may very well control the future of humanity.’ — Ashlee Vance, Bloomberg technology and space journalist, Wild Wild Space

Could he be right? 🤨 On value, it seems so. Estimates vary on what the space industry is worth now and could be worth in the next decade:

• Precedence Research - value the global space technology market size at US$443.20 billion in 2023 and anticipate it could reach around US$916.85 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.54% from 2024 to 2033.
• The World Economic Forum and McKinsey — issued a joint report that estimates the global space economy will be worth US$1.8 trillion by 2035 (accounting for inflation), up from US$630 billion in 2023

Even with the best intentions… 🌏 Illustrating Vance’s caution, image-capturing satellite startup Planet has provided open source images of all of Earth’s surface. The company’s vision was to track deforestation and climate change impacts.

Their daily images of planet Earth have been used more widely, however. This includes spotting Russia’s military line-up at Ukraine’s border prior to their Ukraine invasion in February 2022, and to see what appears to be China’s hidden Type 093 nuclear-powered submarine. Such precise level of intercountry and commercial visual tracking information has been queried:

‘Now that there are commercial companies that have nothing to do with governments snapping pictures day after day, we're starting to call it open source intelligence.’ — Allison Puccini, Imagery Analyst, Armillary Services, Wild Wild Space

Planet Labs (PL) listed on the NYSE in April 2021 at US$10.25 and their stock has since plummeted 77.24% to US$2.21, giving them a market cap of US$654.451 million.

Rocket Lab’s bold ambitions 

Lean, mean, rocket machines. 🚀 Rocket Lab (RKLB) founder, President and CEO Sir Peter Beck acknowledges they’re a challenger in the space race. Beck’s US and New Zealand-based company is up against space innovators that appear to have ‘infinite capital’ — including Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic (SPCE), Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, and Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Legacy company Boeing (BA) are in the mix too — despite finding themselves in a pickle, with their space crew Suni and Butch, who took off on June 5 for 8 days, and are not now due to return to Earth until March 2025, following a planned collection by a SpaceX Dragon crew.

Following his rocket pilgrimage to the US in the mid-2000s, aerospace engineer Beck, who’s been passionate about rocket propulsion since childhood had a close encounter with a very different NASA to the one he once imagined — one paralysed by over-regulation and innovation inertia. This led to his decision, made during a 12-hour flight home: ‘F**k it. Let's start a company’.

‍‘We have a saying here at Rocket Lab that we have no money, so we have to think. We've never been in a position to outspend our competitors. We just have to out-think them. We have to be lean and mean. If I had to boil it down to one succinct thing … I would say it's being ruthlessly efficient and not making mistakes.’ — Sir Peter Beck, Founder and CEO Rocket Lab, Ars Technica

Rocket Lab is challenging SpaceX’s ‘monopoly’. 

In 2025, Rocket Lab is aiming to launch their 40 metre tall rocket, Neutron — double the height of their Electron rocket, but shorter than Falcon 9 with its Dragon spacecraft at 48.1 metres tall — and which can also carry humans. It’s a challenger move with a rocket that Beck said is ‘unashamedly a competitor’ to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, adding: ‘The Falcon 9 is an amazing vehicle, and right now it's arguably a monopoly. There’s very few examples in history where monopolies persist.’

As an end-to-end space infrastructure company, Beck says Rocket Lab has learned ‘expensive and hard lessons’ building their smaller rocket, Electron. A process where they had to carve out efficiencies and ‘cut our teeth’ on making a reusable rocket launch pad.

‘A small rocket is by far the hardest rocket to build. I can put my hand on my heart and say that because we’ve built a small one and now we’re building a big one. And the reason why it’s so hard is that there’s so many things on a small rocket that don’t scale. No matter what, your biggest competitor in the space industry is physics.’ — Sir Peter Beck, Founder and CEO Rocket Lab, OPTO Themes

SpaceX has delivered 6,426 Starlink satellites to lower Earth orbit, with only 6,371 currently working. The company, headed by Elon Musk, hopes to have as many as 42,000 satellites to create what they call a ‘megaconstellation’. Their Falcon 9, which eclipses any other operating rocket in size, has a payload carrying capacity of around 50 x 80 kg satellites. 

🌏 LIVE: Satellite space map

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But not everyone’s happy with global space ambitions. 👩‍🚀 Astronomers and commentators have issued warnings ranging from a lack of global space governance, to the risks posed from space debris and the potential for satellites to collide with each other and space craft — with Beck backing space debris regulation. 

‘Starlink satellites were involved every week in about 1,600 encounters between two spacecraft closer than 0.6 miles (1 kilometre). That's about 50% of all such incidents. This number rises with every new batch of satellites launched into space. By the time Starlink deploys all 12,000 satellites of its first-generation constellation it could reach 90%.’ — Hugh Lewis, Head of the Astronautics Research Group, University of Southampton and Europe's leading space debris expert, Space.com

SpaceX is also potentially facing penalties closer to home from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for alleged violations against the Clean Water Act.

Rocket Lab’s record quarterly revenue results

Rocket Lab is the only publicly listed company sending satellite payloads to space. In their August second quarter reporting, they announced their ‘highest revenue quarter in company history at $106 million’. Today they have a market cap US$ 4.832 billion, with their stock up 66.8% year-to-date (YTD), and 98.85% year-over-year (YOY).

Rocket Lab’s competition?

Failure to launch. ☄️ Once, there were as many as 100 small rocket companies globally. This includes Astra, which had a very public failure after listing through a SPAC and being required to delist from the Nasdaq. Their founder and CEO Chris Kemp allegedly followed Beck’s team at Rocket Lab’ factory under false pretences. He then attempted to make similar satellite carrying rockets cheaply, but the company failed to take off. In perhaps an ironic twist, Astra lost their NASA TROPICS constellation contract to rival Rocket Lab after they couldn’t deliver on the mission. And now another rocket startup has stalled.

Axiom Space, co-founded by lifelong space enthusiast and philanthropist Kam Ghaffarian, aims to build private space stations for humans to live and work off-planet, using the International Space Station (ISS) as a base. Their plans are now in jeopardy due to financial troubles, delays, and leadership challenges. Despite raising US$500 million, the wannabe space pioneer has been unable to secure additional funding and is unable to pay suppliers, which has led to staff layoffs and pay cuts.

After CEO Michael Suffredini stepped down, founder Ghaffarian took over operations. Axiom is now considering smaller station modules due to the potential early decommissioning of the ISS, which complicates the company’s business model and fundraising efforts.

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