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7 min read
April 15, 2025
by
Belinda Nash

EV market rising but Tesla sales decline

Predicted by some to become a US $1.58 trillion dollar market globally, in the US alone EV sales are up 11.4% year-over-year. Which countries are leading the fast-charge? And how could trade tariffs impact sales as we accelerate into the second quarter?
EV market rising but Tesla sales decline
7 min read
April 15, 2025
by
Belinda Nash

EV market rising but Tesla sales decline

Predicted by some to become a US $1.58 trillion dollar market globally, in the US alone EV sales are up 11.4% year-over-year. Which countries are leading the fast-charge? And how could trade tariffs impact sales as we accelerate into the second quarter?
7 min read
April 15, 2025
by
Belinda Nash

EV market rising but Tesla sales decline

Predicted by some to become a US $1.58 trillion dollar market globally, in the US alone EV sales are up 11.4% year-over-year. Which countries are leading the fast-charge? And how could trade tariffs impact sales as we accelerate into the second quarter?
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Innovation meets sustainable luxury. 🏎️ Ferrari (RACE - NV) announced at their February AGM their plans to reach an historic ‘landmark’ by debuting their ‘first fully electric supercar’ late this year, swinging into production in 2026. The announcement came as the prestigious Italian brand — who continues to have dibs on their F1 Monegasque driverreported a 21% increase in annualised profit for 2024, and posted projected 5% revenue growth for their 2025 full year results. 

While Ferrari may not be top of the list when considering EVs (or the F1 standings…), the luxury sports carmaker is already delivering ahead of some US competitors, including General Motors and Ford: 

‘In 2024, Ferrari delivered six hybrid engine models that made up 51% of its total shipments. In other words, more than half of the vehicles it shipped last year were hybrid vehicles. In comparison, electrified vehicles (including hybrids) made up 46% of GM’s total deliveries in 2024 while the percentage sat at an even lower 38% for Ford Motor.’ — Wajeeh Khan, Invezz

Most EV-makers are growing sales

Global EV market could reach US$ 1.58 trillion by 2033. 🔌 It’s not just Ferrari, US EV sales are up 11.4% year-over-year (YOY), with nearly 300,000 new EVs sold in the US in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025: 

  • General Motors (GM) — sold more than 31,887 EVs (up 94% YOY) surpassing both Ford and the Hyundai Motor Company (HYMTF - OTC)
  • Ford Motor Co (F) — assembles 80% of their US EVs in America, and their EV sales were up 11.5% YOYto 22,550 vehicles, in part due to the Mustang Mach-E, which accounted for 11,607 vehicles sold
  • Polestar (PSNY - ADR) — manufactures in the US and China, their American EV sales jumped 76.4% compared to Q1 in 2024,, with 12,304 vehicles rolling out the door
  • Lucid (LCID) — plans to reach a ‘milestone’ this April, launching their first seven-seater SUV electric vehicle, the Gravity, made in Arizona
  • Stellantis NV (STLA - NV) has joined the EV market, releasing new Dodge, Jeep and Fiat EVs
  • Tesla (TSLA) — Q1 US sales dropped 8.6% YOY, selling 128,000 cars
  • Rivian Automotive (RIVN) — Q1 sales dropped 36% YOY

Motor1 reported ‘things are looking up for most automakers’, also citing strong sales for Toyota Motor Corporation (TM - ADR), Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAY - OTC) and Subaru (FUJHY - OTC).

Tesla’s woes hit share markets

Tesla stocks hit an all time high in 2024. 🏔️ In 2024, Tesla (TSLA) was Hatch investors’ second most popular buy, and on 17 December last year, Tesla stock peaked at US$479.86. Share value has since fallen to US$252.35, a drop of 47.41% — but still up 56.27% over one year:

Tesla's global EV sales have also been declining, with Q1 sales down 13%, delivering 336,681 vehicles globally (still many more than GM).

It would appear that the same politics that boosted Tesla in the post-US election rally, may have also caused their stock to ‘plummet’ as CEO Elon Musk’s role as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) came into effect. While Tesla may have fallen out of favour with Democrats, it’s grown in interest among Republicans:

‘The percentage of Democrats who said they would consider buying a Tesla declined from 23% in 2023 to 13% in February (2025). And over that same period, the percentage of Republican buyers that would be interested in it grew from 15% to 26%. But the challenge for Tesla, some analysts say, is that conservatives are still more hesitant to buy EVs, so they're not really naturally interested in the product.’ — Becky Peterson, The Journal podcast, WSJ

China dominates global EV market share

China gained 62% of the global EV market in 2024. 🌏 That’s 15% in New Zealand, as well as 82% in Brazil, 77% in Thailand, 75% in Indonesia, and 70% in Mexico. 

China is the undisputed global powerhouse of the EV industry, leading in both domestic sales and overall production … As the global EV market has expanded, in 2024, over 17 million units were sold. Chinese manufacturers have aggressively pursued international opportunities, offering affordable vehicles that often undercut local competitors.’ — Bruno Venditti, Visual Capitalist

In 2024, the US imposed a 100% tariff on China’s EVs now potentially hiked to 247.4%. 🚘 To appease their biggest trading partner, Canada also applied 100% tariffs in October last year. 

But since the US kicked off this year’s trade war targeting Canada, some commentators including economist Julian Karaguesian, have suggested Canada may ease some of those measures. Others in Canada’s automotive industry disagree, saying the reasons for the tariffs hold strong today — and if removed could potentially wipe out Canada’s more than CA$46.1 billion EV supply chain investments. In context, Canada’s EV sales in Q1 this year reached more than 75,000 zero-emission EVs. 

Could BYD overtake Tesla?

EU talks ‘could help BYD, hurt Tesla’ — WSJ. 📰 Last week, the trading arm of the European Union, the European Commission, had talks with China, where Tesla sales are in decline. EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao concluded they’d ‘look into setting minimum prices’, meaning Chinese-made EVs would have to be sold at or above a certain price in the EU market.

This is because BYDs are cost-competitive with many EVs on the market, which likely contributed to BYD’s 2024 revenue of US$107 billion, overtaking Tesla’s US$97.7 billion annual revenue.

While BYD is not listed on the US share markets (as an American Depository Receipt - ADR), the Roundhill China Dragons ETF (DRAG) contains a 17.95% of holding of BYD (BYDDF- OTC), and is one of the ‘Six Dragons’ of China — which also includes US ADR stocks, Alibaba (BABA - ADR), PDD Holdings (PDD - ADR), and Tencent (TCEHY).

BYD is not China’s only EV-maker. ⚡ Tesla has other rival EV-makers, potentially also hoping for a slice of the global EV market. XPeng (XPEV - ADR) and Xiaomi (XIACY - OTC) both reported ‘strong March and first-quarter deliveries’ in China, while SUV-makers Nio (NIO - ADR) and Li Auto (LI - ADR) haven’t competed on sales.

Starting grid, electricity grid. 🛣️ If EV sales continue their upward trajectory there may only be one winner, that’s the planet’s path to net zero emissions by 2050

Like this? 👍 Then you might like: What’s driving gold prices to record highs? 🤔

Belinda Nash
Finance writer
Linkedin

We’re not financial advisors and Hatch news is for your information only. However dazzling our writing, none of it is a recommendation to invest in any of the companies or funds mentioned. If you want support before making any investment decisions, consider seeking financial advice from a licensed provider. We’ve done our best to ensure all information is current when we pushed ‘publish’ on this article. And of course, with investing, your money isn’t guaranteed to grow and there’s always a risk you might lose money.

Join the Kiwis who are hatching their tomorrow and have invested more than $1 billion with Hatch.

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